SF Scores 0.84 on the Civic Hostility Index. Austin Scores 0.18.
Zoning maps tell you what is allowed. The civic hostility index tells you whether the city will let it happen.
Across 24 metros tracked in Locus civic_records, the hostility_index spans from 0.09 (Phoenix outer ring) to 0.84 (San Francisco). Six metros score above 0.65 — the threshold where average permit timeline begins to diverge materially from what zoning classification would predict.
The Setup
The hostility_index aggregates four sub-signals at the metro level:
- 1.Council opposition rate: Share of development-adjacent agenda items receiving dissenting votes or referral to extended review
- 2.Public comment density: Median public comments per permit application above $500K project value
- 3.Appeal filing rate: Administrative appeals as a share of total permit approvals
- 4.Litigation risk score: Modeled probability of a project entering judicial review, drawn from civic_records case filings cross-referenced against known project outcomes
The litigation_risk_score is the highest-signal sub-component. Across 24 metros it correlates at r=0.74 with actual permit timeline variance — more predictive than zoning class, square footage, or use type.
The Chain
The six metros above the 0.65 hostility threshold: San Francisco (0.84), New York City (0.79), Chicago (0.71), Seattle (0.68), Boston (0.67), and Los Angeles (0.66). Their litigation_risk_scores range from 0.59 (Seattle) to 0.77 (San Francisco).
The metros below 0.35 — Austin (0.18), Phoenix (0.22), Nashville (0.31) — carry litigation_risk_scores of 0.07, 0.09, and 0.12 respectively.
The gap is not primarily about political orientation. It reflects institutional density: metros with older civic infrastructure — established neighborhood associations, longer-standing legal frameworks for standing, experienced opposition counsel — generate more friction per development dollar regardless of stated policy goals.
Austin is the outlier to watch. Its hostility_index has risen 0.06 points over the trailing 12 months — the largest single-metro increase in the tracked set. Council opposition rates in Austin urban core cells nearly doubled since Q3 2025.
The Implication
For development underwriting, the hostility_index functions as a timeline multiplier. A project in San Francisco should be modeled with 18-27 months of entitlement friction as a base assumption. The same project type in Phoenix should be modeled at 6-9 months.
The litigation_risk_score adds a tail-risk dimension. Projects in high-hostility metros do not just take longer — a share of them enter permanent litigation holds. In Locus civic_records, 4.2% of projects with litigation_risk_score above 0.70 are currently flagged as contested: a court filing recorded against the permit with no resolution date. In low-risk metros the contested rate is 0.3%.
At the cell level, hostility is not uniform within a metro. In San Francisco, Mission District and Noe Valley cells score 0.91-0.94 — above the city average of 0.84. Outer neighborhoods carry substantially lower friction. That cell-level spread matters more than the metro average for any specific project evaluation.
What to Watch
Austin at its current rate of increase crosses the 0.35 threshold in approximately 18 months. That would be the first Sunbelt market to breach low-hostility status since the dataset began.
Chicago (0.71) has dropped 0.04 points over the past 12 months — the largest single-metro decrease — consistent with recent council composition changes and a streamlined administrative review track for affordable housing projects. Whether that drop continues or mean-reverts is the more interesting signal than Chicago's absolute level.
Limitations
The hostility_index is a trailing signal. A city that reforms its appeal process this month will not show a lower hostility score for 6-12 months, depending on corpus refresh cadence. Legislative intent and administrative outcome are measured differently.
Litigation_risk_score is modeled, not measured. It predicts the probability of judicial review based on civic record patterns. Projects in geographies with sparse civic record coverage will have underestimated scores — metros added to the corpus more recently carry wider confidence intervals.
Locus civic_records covers 24 US metros. hostility_index and litigation_risk_score are derived scores updated quarterly. Cell-level scores at H3 resolution 8. Source records drawn from Granicus, public court indexes, and municipal permit APIs.