The Setup
Council records are a leading indicator. When a city is actively debating land use — zoning amendments, variances, conditional use permits, density exceptions — the civic records table registers those filings before permits follow. Miami-Dade has been generating council activity at an elevated rate for 90 days. The pipeline has not moved.
The Chain
Miami-Dade cells with council record activity in the last 90 days average an upzoning_probability of 0.61. In the civic_records scoring model, anything above 0.55 is classified as an active upzoning precursor — meaning the council record content contains language associated with density increase, FAR amendments, or mixed-use conversion.
The development pipeline cell score for those same cells averages 6 out of 100. The broader Miami metro cell score for development pipeline is 8. Neither number reflects the council activity in the underlying records.
The gap is clearest in the Brickell and Wynwood corridors, which together account for 38% of Miami's upzoning-adjacent council records and both carry pipeline scores below 10. Nationally, metros where upzoning_probability > 0.55 AND pipeline score > 30 are classified as active development corridors. Miami is in neither bucket.
The civic hostility index for Miami-Dade sits at 0.31 — moderate, between Austin (0.18) and San Francisco (0.84). The litigation risk score is low at 0.14. Neither number explains the pipeline lag.
What the data shows is a pre-deployment window: the civic intent is registered, the approval environment is not hostile, but capital has not followed the signal yet.
The Implication
The gap between upzoning_probability and pipeline score narrows when projects reach permit filing. Miami's building permits for mixed-use and multi-family in the last 90 days are running at roughly 1.4× the annual baseline — elevated, but not commensurate with the council record volume. Permits are starting to follow the records; the cell scores have not updated to reflect it.
For site selection and territory planning, this is the most useful window in the cycle. Council records document intent. Permits document execution. Cell scores summarize what has already happened. Miami is currently between the first and second stage — the signal is visible in civic records before it clears into pipeline scores.
What to Watch
The 90-day council record velocity is the right trailing window. If Miami's upzoning_probability > 0.55 cell count grows past 180 (currently ~142), that would be consistent with the pattern seen in Austin in Q3 2024 — six months before Austin's pipeline cell scores moved from 12 to 34.
Watch permit issuance for multi-family (3+ units) specifically. That subcategory has the tightest correlation to pipeline score movement at the cell level; single-family and renovation permits do not shift the score.
Limitations
Upzoning_probability is derived from council record text classification. Miami-Dade records are sourced via Granicus; coverage is consistent but not exhaustive for committee sub-hearings. Development pipeline cell scores update on a trailing 90-day permit window and lag current filing activity by approximately 30–45 days.
--- Locus cell scores combine civic records, permit velocity, and local market signals. Score updates reflect a trailing 90-day window.